The U.S. embassy in London on Friday warned Americans to "exercise increased caution" while visiting Jewish and American areas in the U.K. and in Europe because of a recent rise in threats.

"The U.S. Embassy in London notes recent attacks and threats targeting Jewish and American institutions in the United Kingdom and Europe," the alert said. "U.S. citizens, particularly those visiting institutions serving Jewish or American interests, should remain alert and exercise increased caution."

The embassy further advised Americans to remain alert while visiting tourist and expat areas and houses of worship, review personal security plans and to check local media for updates.

Concerned citizens can also enroll in the State Department's Safe Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive travel and security updates.

NRA FORGES HISTORIC PARTNERSHIP WITH JEWISH GROUP AMID RISING ANTISEMITISM

The advisory followed a series of recent antisemitic attacks in the U.K. and in Europe, including an arson attack on four ambulances linked to Jewish charity in London on March 23, an April 18 attack on the Kenton United Synagogue in London, and a March explosion at a Jewish school in Amsterdam that authorities called a "targeted attack against the Jewish community."

No one was injured, but the school was damaged.

ANTISEMITIC ATTACKER FACED 30-YEAR SENTENCE, GETS LESS THAN 1½ YEARS IN PLEA DEAL

U.K. authorities are investigating whether "thugs for hire" backed by Iran are instigating the attacks in London, GB News reported.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the Jewish Chronicle: "In relation to malign state actors more generally, proscription, we do need legislation in order to take necessary measures, and that is legislation that we're bringing forward as soon as we can."

US embassy in London warns to 'exercise increased caution' near Jewish sites in UK, Europe after attacks

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On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will go to the polls to elect new local leaders for the first time in 22 years ­— a move experts warn could allow Hamas room to maintain influence as it refuses to comply with ceasefire disarmament terms.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer told Fox News Digital that "when you hold elections in the Palestinian Authority and the timing’s not right and the circumstances are still dicey, you get Hamas victories."

Schanzer said the Bush administration’s 2006 decision to advocate for elections, which "led to Hamas winning, and it led to a standoff which led to a civil war," adding that "you’ve got to be really careful when it comes to holding elections with a territory like Gaza in particular, where Hamas has so much control, and where terrorist organizations are still considered to be legitimate players."

EXPERTS URGE TRUMP TO BAN TERROR-LINKED UN AGENCY FROM HIS GAZA PEACE PLAN

Gazan journalists and media personnel continue to be posthumously identified as members of terrorist groups, highlighting the difficulty of distinguishing terror affiliates from civilians.

Four parties are contesting the election in Deir al-Balah. To be eligible, candidates were asked to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and the terms of agreements it has previously made, including recognition of the State of Israel and endorsement of a two-state solution, according to reporting by the Center for Peace Communications.

However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, is affiliated with Hamas. Two of its candidates have been pictured with Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on X that "holding elections in Gaza at this time is extremely reckless and irresponsible," noting that "Gazans are being arrested, jailed, tortured, shot, and killed daily for social media posts and anything they say that’s perceived as being critical of Hamas. These elections should be halted and prevented from proceeding, for they are meddling with the transition process that the Board of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza], and the international community have planned for Gaza, with Hamas’s disarmament and relinquishment of power being the first necessary step."

TRUMP SAYS 'REAL CHANCE FOR GREATNESS' AS NETANYAHU WHITE HOUSE MEETING LOOMS FOR GAZA TALKS

Disarmament of Hamas, a key demand within the second phase of President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement, has yet to be completed. Reports indicate that Hamas has increased its hold in Gaza as of March, continuing to tax locals, building education systems, and placing police throughout the territory they hold.

Schanzer says that Hamas is unlikely to hand over its arms. If they were to do so, he said that they "will try to make distinctions between weapons," possibly offering to give up heavy weapons like RPGs while maintaining a large arsenal of automatic weapons.

Hamas appears to have made a partial disarmament offer. The New York Times reported on April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions. The officials "did not provide a clear answer" when asked if weapons from Hamas’ so-called military wing would be included.

HAMAS FACES 'LEGITIMACY CRISIS' AS DESPERATE GAZANS FLOCK TO US-BACKED AID CENTERS

Schanzer pushed back on claims that Hamas’ political and military wings operate separately. "That is a fiction. The idea that they are separate in any way or that there is a firewall between them is asinine." He said that this is "a distinction that has been made up by the West in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections. It’s a mistake to buy into that fiction."

Schanzer said weakening Iran could be key to minimizing Hamas’ influence. "The psychological impact of their top patron being defeated on the battlefield, I can’t overstate how important that event could be," he said. "It would be a gut punch to Hamas."

With Israel controlling about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas the remaining 47%, Schanzer said "we could continue to see the erosion of Hamas control" amid the "slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground." He said patience, though, is necessary, adding that "the enemies of the United States and Israel and the West have a very different timeline. They want to wait out everybody because they know that we’d like to move on."

The Trump administration did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions about whether a partial disarmament would satisfy its ceasefire terms, or if it would take action to stall elections until there’s more stability in Gaza

Hamas influence looms over Gaza elections as experts warn vote could backfire

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On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will go to the polls to elect new local leaders for the first time in 22 years ­— a move experts warn c...

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Friday sanctioned a major Chinese oil refinery and dozens of ships tied to Iran's "shadow fleet," escalating efforts to choke off Tehran's main source of revenue.

Officials said in a press release that the move targets Hengli Petrochemical, one of Iran’s largest oil buyers, along with a network of shipping companies and tankers responsible for transporting billions of dollars’ worth of petroleum products to foreign markets. The Treasury Department identified these "shadow fleet" vessels as the financial lifeline for Iran's "unstable regime."

The crackdown is part of "Economic Fury," a broader campaign to squeeze Iran’s economy by limiting its ability to sell oil abroad, revenue the U.S. says funds the regime’s military and destabilizing activities across the Middle East.

"Economic Fury is imposing a financial stranglehold on the Iranian regime, hampering its aggression in the Middle East, and helping to curtail its nuclear ambitions," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

SECOND TANKER SEIZED NEAR VENEZUELA AS US ENFORCES OIL BLOCKADE

Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery Co. is a China-based "teapot" refinery, a term used for independent facilities known for purchasing discounted crude, including from sanctioned countries.

The refinery, one of China’s largest independent facilities, has received Iranian oil cargoes from sanctioned shadow fleet vessels since at least 2023. Hengli has also purchased oil tied to Iran’s armed forces, generating hundreds of millions of dollars for the Iranian military.

Hengli has also received shipments tied to Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, a firm identified by U.S. officials as a front for Iran’s armed forces that helps facilitate oil sales abroad. The company operates on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, using a network of intermediaries and vessels to move sanctioned crude, with proceeds helping fund the country’s military programs and regional proxy groups.

IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

The new sanctions also target the network that makes these oil sales possible, a "shadow fleet" of aging tankers and shell companies that move petroleum across global markets while evading sanctions and obscuring the origin of shipments.

These ships avoid detection by transferring cargo from one tanker to another in the open ocean. Treasury officials said 19 vessels were targeted in the action.

The move is part of the Trump administration’s renewed "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aimed at cutting off the regime’s primary source of revenue through oil exports and sanctions enforcement.

U.S. officials say oil exports remain the backbone of Iran’s economy, and efforts to restrict those flows are designed to limit the government’s ability to fund its military, support proxy groups and advance its nuclear program.

Treasury officials warned that additional sanctions are likely as the U.S. continues targeting the networks, intermediaries and buyers that enable Iran to move oil on the global market.

US targets China refinery in sweeping Iran oil crackdown, sanctions ‘shadow fleet’ tankers

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The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Friday sanctioned a major Chinese oil refinery and dozens of ships tied ...

U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached one of its most powerful points in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions from achieving their full impact, according to a former Treasury sanctions expert.

Miad Maleki, who played a central role in Treasury Department sanctions campaigns against Iran and its network of proxy groups, said in an on-camera interview the current moment reflects a rare convergence of economic, political and diplomatic leverage against Tehran.

"We’ve never had the level of leverage that we have today with Iran in the history of our conflict … since 1979," Maleki said. 

His assessment comes as President Donald Trump signaled escalating pressure Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz" and that it is effectively "sealed up tight" until Iran agrees to a deal.

IRAN PRESIDENT VOWS DEFIANCE AS PROTESTS BUILD AGAINST REGIME AMID US MILITARY BUILD UP

Maleki argues the current moment marks a turning point because multiple pressure tools — sanctions, a U.S. naval blockade, and tighter enforcement — are being applied simultaneously for the first time in years. Unlike previous cycles, he said, the strategy is now directly targeting Iran’s oil exports and the networks that help move them, raising the risk of a rapid economic squeeze.

He said Iran may run out of oil storage in as little as two to three weeks, forcing production cuts, while gasoline shortages could hit on a similar timeline due to heavy reliance on imports. Combined with an estimated $435 million in daily economic losses, the pressure could spill into the financial system, leaving the regime struggling to pay salaries and raising the risk of renewed unrest.

Maleki said the real leverage lies in sustained economic pressure and enforcement.

At the core of that pressure is an Iranian economy he describes as "on the verge of collapse," driven by years of sanctions and compounded by recent disruptions.

He pointed to triple-digit food inflation, a sharply devalued currency and a roughly 90% collapse in purchasing power, along with potential long-term oil revenue losses of up to $14 billion annually.

Maleki, who is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated that current conditions are costing Iran "about $435 million a day in combined economic damage … with the blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

A key driver of that pressure is the Strait of Hormuz, long viewed as one of Iran’s primary tools of leverage in global energy markets. Maleki said the dynamic has shifted.

IRAN IS 'TRYING TO GIVE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A HEART ATTACK' BY CLOSING STRAIT OF HORMUZ, UAE MINISTER SAYS

"Iran’s economy relies on the Strait of Hormuz more than any other economy," he said, calling its closure a form of "economic self-sabotage."

While countries in Asia — including Japan, South Korea, India and China — are most exposed to disruptions, many have built up reserves. "Japan’s oil reserve is pretty significant. Same with China," Maleki said.

Still, the region remains heavily dependent on the waterway, with roughly 75% of liquefied natural gas supplies for countries including India, China and South Korea flowing through the strait.

Inside Iran, however, vulnerabilities are more immediate. Despite vast oil reserves, the country imports between 30 million to 60 million liters of gasoline per day to cover a domestic shortfall of up to 35 million liters.

"If they run out of gasoline… they’re going to have a major crisis domestically," Maleki said, noting that past shortages and price hikes have triggered widespread protests.

NUCLEAR EXPERTS WARN IRAN’S URANIUM ‘RIGHT’ IS A MYTH, SAY TRUMP IS RIGHT TO HOLD FIRM

The economic pressure is being reinforced by a U.S. naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime’s primary source of revenue.

A senior administration official said the Treasury Department is intensifying enforcement under what it describes as an "Economic Fury" campaign, using financial and maritime tools in tandem to squeeze Iran’s revenue streams.

The official said the strategy focuses on "systematically degrading Iran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds," including by constraining maritime trade through the naval blockade, which targets Iran’s primary source of revenue from oil exports.

Financial pressure is also expanding globally. The official said Treasury has warned banks in China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Oman that facilitating Iranian trade could expose them to secondary sanctions, signaling a more aggressive approach to enforcement beyond Iran’s borders.

Treasury has issued sanctions on more than 1,000 targets since 2025 under the current maximum pressure campaign, the official said, aimed at disrupting Iran’s oil trade and financial networks.

The official added that Iran is facing immediate logistical constraints, warning that storage capacity at Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export terminal — could be filled within days if exports remain blocked, potentially forcing production shut-ins.

"Treasury will continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran," the official warned.

A new analysis from United Against Nuclear Iran said the blockade is already deterring high-value shipments, even as some Iran-linked vessels continue to transit the region.

TRUMP CLAIMS IRAN 'STARVING FOR CASH,' 'COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY' AFTER EXTENDING CEASEFIRE

"Effectiveness should not be measured by the total number of Iran-linked vessels at sea," the group said in an April 22 statement. "But by whether the U.S. is disrupting high-value Iranian oil exports… and deterring large-scale illicit shipments."

At least 29 vessels have been turned around or forced back to port, including several very large crude carriers, according to the report.

The blockade, announced April 12 and enforced by U.S. Central Command, is designed to cut off Iranian crude exports, particularly shipments to China, while prioritizing high-impact targets.

While sanctions are clearly biting, Maleki said their impact has been limited by inconsistent enforcement across successive U.S. administrations.

U.S. sanctions on Iran have been in place in various forms for years, targeting the country’s oil exports, banking sector and access to global financial systems.

Under the Obama administration, sanctions pressure was partially lifted under the nuclear deal. The first Trump administration reimposed "maximum pressure," but enforcement ramped up gradually and lasted only a limited period. The Biden administration later eased enforcement in pursuit of diplomacy.

He argued that cycles of tightening and relief — including sanctions rollback under the Iran nuclear deal and pauses in enforcement — have allowed Tehran to adapt.

"What’s different now," Maleki said, is the combination of sustained sanctions with real-time enforcement measures that directly restrict Iran’s ability to export oil — a step that was largely absent in earlier phases.

To maximize pressure, Maleki said Washington must sustain enforcement, particularly through secondary sanctions targeting foreign banks and companies facilitating Iranian trade.

Crucially, he downplayed the likelihood that outside powers could offset the pressure.

"I can’t really point to any other nation… that is going to jump in and give the Iranian regime a lifeline," he said.

"At some point in the next few weeks to a few months, they’re going to face not just gasoline shortages and oil production disruptions, but also a major banking problem to pay salaries of government employees and IRGC personnel," he said. "Iranians run out of patience again, as they did before, and they’re back on the street. I’m not quite sure if you’re going to have unpaid IRGC forces willing to go back on the street and kill their fellow Iranians who have the same grievances that they have now, which is a collapsed economy."

US economic chokehold on Iran reaches peak leverage as collapse risks emerge

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U.S. economic pressure on Iran has reached one of its most powerful points in decades, but inconsistent enforcement has prevented sanctions...

Tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 after Iran’s IRGC seized two vessels in what analysts describe as "tit-for-tat" retaliation against the U.S., with one ship linked to a billionaire shipping family tied to Presidents Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron.

Video aired on Iran state TV purportedly shows IRGC soldiers seizing the container ships in the Strait, Reuters said Thursday.

One vessel, the MSC Francesca, is owned by MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, founded by Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte and now controlled by his two children, Fox News Digital has learned.

"Some 20 Iranians armed to the teeth stormed the ship. Sailors are under Iranian control, their movements on the ship are limited, but the Iranians are treating them well," a relative of one of the MSC Francesca seafarers told Reuters.

TRUMP'S SPECIAL ENVOY WITKOFF AND KUSHNER VISIT US AIRCRAFT CARRIER AMID IRAN TENSIONS, TALKS

"The ship is anchored nine nautical miles from the Iranian coast. Negotiations between MSC and Iran are ongoing, our sailors are fine," Montenegro's minister of maritime affairs, Filip Radulovic, told state broadcaster RTCG.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward AI pointed to IRGC "tit-for-tat" tactics given the recent MSC vessel seizure.

This followed a U.S. naval blockade imposed on April 13, with Tehran warning of retaliation after U.S. forces also seized an Iranian vessel.

"The IRGC attacked three ships. It also captured and took in two of them—the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas—while the Euphoria managed to get away," Windward AI co-founder Ami Daniel told Fox News Digital.

IRAN FIRES LIVE MISSILES INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TRUMP ENVOYS ARRIVE FOR NUCLEAR TALKS

"This is a ‘tit-for-tat’ exercise by the IRGC, which, along with the Houthis, has long claimed MSC is connected to Israel.

"Aponte, owner and chairman, has a Jewish wife, and MSC calls in Israel; however, so do all major liners," he added.

Diego Aponte, Gianluigi’s son, had been making "inroads with Trump’s circle," Bloomberg reported April 13.

He also helped arrange a November 2025 White House meeting with Swiss business leaders that led to a preliminary deal to reduce the 39% tariffs imposed on Switzerland over the summer.

BLOCKADE 101: AMERICAN SEA POWER ON DISPLAY AS TRUMP CORNERS IRAN AND WARNS OFF CHINA

Over the last year, MSC’s relationship with the White House also positioned father Gianluigi Aponte as a key player in a $19 billion deal with Li Ka-shing, as MSC and BlackRock moved to acquire two Panama Canal ports under pressure from Trump to place them in "friendly" hands, according to the outlet.

With a net worth of at least $37 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is Gianluigi Aponte and his wife, Rafaela Aponte-Diamant, who appear to mingle with world leaders.

The MSC executive chairman and Rafaela have been photographed with French President Emmanuel Macron.

GULF SHIPPING OPERATIONS GRIND TO HALT NEAR IRAN, US QUIETLY PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE STRIKE: 'HEIGHTENED RISK'

Rafaela is also reportedly related to Alexis Kohler (his mother is said to be her cousin), who served as Macron’s secretary-general from May 2017 to April 14, 2025, and was described as "Macron’s second brain."

Meanwhile, the Aponte family’s vessel, carrying about 40 crew members, was taken toward Iran’s port of Bandar Abbas by the Iranian navy, sources told Reuters Thursday.

Four crew members, including the captain, are from Montenegro, officials said, while Croatia’s foreign ministry confirmed two Croatian nationals are also aboard; MSC declined to comment, Reuters confirmed.

The IRGC Navy claimed that both vessels captured "were operating without the necessary permits."

According to Lloyd’s List, the 2008-built MSC Francesca "normally operates in service between the U.S. West Coast, Asia and the Middle East Gulf."

Iran escalates Hormuz 'tit-for-tat,' seizes ship tied to billionaire close to Trump, Macron

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Tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 after Iran’s IRGC seized two vessels in what analysts describe as "tit-for-tat...

The two container ships seized by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz have been taken toward the port of Bandar Abbas along the key waterway, a report said Thursday. 

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed on Wednesday that the vessels, identified as the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, were operating without proper authorization and had tampered with navigation systems, accusations that could not be independently verified.   

"Some 20 Iranians armed to the teeth stormed the ship. Sailors are under Iranians' control, their ⁠movements on the ship are limited, but the Iranians are treating them well," a relative of a captive onboard one of the ships told Reuters on Thursday in relation to one of the seizures. 

The news outlet cited sources as saying that both ships — which are managed by Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) — were taken toward Bandar Abbas with a combined 40 crew onboard.

LIVE UPDATES: US-IRAN CEASEFIRE DEAL HANGS IN THE BALANCE AS ISRAEL, LEBANON SLATED FOR RARE WASHINGTON TALKS

"The ship is anchored nine nautical miles from the Iranian coast. Negotiations between MSC and Iran are ongoing, our sailors are fine," Filip Radulovic, Montenegro's minister of maritime affairs, was quoted by Reuters as telling state television there. 

Before their seizure on Wednesday, the ships reported coming under fire near the strait, underscoring the increasingly volatile conditions in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. 

The situation is unfolding after U.S. forces recently seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman as it was approaching Iranian waters Sunday.

PENTAGON WARNS OF 6-MONTH TIMELINE TO CLEAR IRANIAN MINES FROM STRAIT OF HORMUZ: REPORT

That vessel, the Touska, remains in U.S. custody as American forces continue inspecting what maritime security sources told Reuters is likely "dual-use" cargo — materials that can serve both civilian and military purposes — following a voyage from Asia. 

The U.S. military is also continuing to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports on Thursday.

So far, U.S. forces have redirected 33 vessels since the start of the blockade against Iran, U.S. Central Command said Thursday.

Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips contributed to this report. 

Ships seized by Iranians 'armed to the teeth' along Strait of Hormuz have been taken toward port: report

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The two container ships seized by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz have been taken toward the port of Bandar Abbas along the key wate...

As Israel and Lebanon return to U.S.-brokered talks Thursday in Washington, the central question is the one that has derailed every previous attempt at a lasting deal: What happens to Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror organization?

An Israeli official told Fox News Digital that the meeting, hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will include senior U.S. officials — U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Counselor Michael Needham — alongside Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh.

A State Department spokesperson called the initial April 14 meeting "productive." "We will continue to facilitate direct, good-faith discussions between the two governments," the spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

The meeting comes as a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire, reached in mid-April, is holding for now, offering what officials describe as a narrow window for diplomacy after weeks of cross-border fighting.

ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH TRUCE IN JEOPARDY AFTER ROCKET BARRAGE KILLS 6

But the truce has not resolved the underlying conflict — only paused it.

The latest escalation began March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern border, opening a new front in the regional war days after U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran Feb. 28, according to prior reporting.

Israel responded with sustained air and ground operations across southern Lebanon aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border, while Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones into northern Israel.

The fighting displaced more than a million people in Lebanon and forced Israeli civilians into shelters, underscoring the scale of the escalation.

MACRON UNDER FIRE OVER IRAN, HEZBOLLAH POLICY AS TRUMP ADMIN HOSTS ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS

Now, even as the guns have temporarily quieted, the core conditions that led to the war remain unchanged — leaving negotiators to grapple with the same unresolved question at the heart of the conflict.

A senior U.S. official familiar with the negotiations described the core dilemma: Hezbollah will not agree to disarm without a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Israel will not withdraw without Hezbollah disarming.

International mechanisms — including the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and a multilateral coordination group — have been working to bridge that gap since late 2024, without success.

The same official also indicated that Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, is not necessarily the decisive factor in these discussions, but Nabih Berri, speaker of the nation's House, is the one with true authority, not Aoun.

At the same time, Hezbollah has remained opposed to any contact with Israel and continues to exert significant influence over Lebanon’s political and security decisions, complicating U.S. efforts to advance talks.

Inside Lebanon, however, frustration with Hezbollah appears to be growing.

ISRAEL 'MOVING FORWARD' ON POSSIBLE HEZBOLLAH CEASE-FIRE, OFFICIAL SAYS

"There is a growing sense across Lebanon that any U.S.-brokered negotiation track could be a rare opportunity to restore balance to the state," said Rami Naeem, a Lebanese journalist and analyst with Jusoor News.

"Hezbollah’s continued military and political dominance is widely seen as a central driver of the collapse, and even a gradual or indirect opening with Israel could help rebuild state institutions and their role."

Mariam Kasrawani, a Lebanese analyst at Jusoor News, said criticism is becoming more explicit.

"It is becoming harder to ignore the depth of the crisis," she said. "Some are now saying it plainly: Hezbollah has taken Lebanon as a whole — and Shia in particular — to a very bad place."

"I’m not at all optimistic," said Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

"Lebanon is far too weak and divided to force Hezbollah to disarm. And Hezbollah … is so enmeshed in Lebanon’s political system. Any attempt to disarm Hezbollah risks civil war."

CARTEL CONNECTION: HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN EXPLOIT MADURO’S VENEZUELA FOR COCAINE CASH

Instead, Seener said, the talks are focused on limited, tactical goals.

"Talks are focused on ceasefire expansion, Hezbollah withdrawal from border zones, and an expanded presence of the Lebanese army … talks are not at all focused on disarmament."

That gap underscores what he described as the real nature of the process.

"I think that these talks are doomed to failure," Seener said. "I think Israel is currently engaged in conflict management."

Adding to the uncertainty are reports from the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. may press Lebanon to repeal its 1955 Israel Boycott Law, which bans contact with Israelis.

The report frames such a move as a step toward normalization but provides no details and has not been confirmed by U.S. or Lebanese officials.

Fox News Digital reached out for comment from the State Department and the Lebanese Embassy in D.C. but did not receive a response in time for publication.

Hezbollah disarmament deadlock risks civil war, analysts say, as US prepares for Israel–Lebanon talks

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